Abstract

The examination and evaluation of juror interpretations of evidence presented at trial is well suited to consideration within a probability framework. In particular Bayes Theorem provides a useful method for setting and comparing against ‘normative’ expectations regarding the evaluation of evidence weight. It is also valuable for refining experimental designs in line with the theorem. In this presentation I will review two lines of research applying Bayes Theorem to the belief updating of lay-decision-makers: The first exploring the alignment between expert intentions and lay interpretations of forensic science expert evaluative opinions expressed using numerical and linguistic likelihood ratios; the second examining juror sensitivity to evidence relevance in the assessment of expert testimony. Some benefits and limitations of the application of a probability frameworks to these issues will be discussed.